- Cost
- $698.52
- EV
- 36%
- $253.50
- Profit
- −$478.09
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.216 (needs < 0.233)1 outcomesSome thin prices
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to M4A4 | X-Ray
10 Classified skins from the eSports 2013 Winter Case collection can become M4A4 | X-Ray. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New M4A4 | X-Ray needs an average normalized input float below 0.2333 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 100.0%.
- Cost
- $206.47
- EV
- 73%
- $151.54
- Profit
- −$74.70
- after fee
- Win %
- 50%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.232 (needs < 0.233)3 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $92.25
- EV
- 77%
- $71.29
- Profit
- −$30.26
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.227 (needs < 0.233)3 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $119.52
- EV
- 89%
- $106.62
- Profit
- −$26.81
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.229 (needs < 0.233)3 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $158.65
- EV
- 98%
- $155.81
- Profit
- −$23.17
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.229 (needs < 0.233)3 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $169.80
- EV
- 100%
- $170.19
- Profit
- −$21.81
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.229 (needs < 0.233)3 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each M4A4 | X-Ray wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.2333 | $92.25 | 100.0% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.2333 and < 0.5000 | $68.06 | 30.0% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.300 | ≥ 0.5000 and any | $66.72 | 100.0% |
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.30 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.30 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.30.
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.