M4A1-S | Nightmare
M4A1-S | Nightmare is a Classified skin available from the Horizon Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up to M4A1-S | Nightmare
10 Restricted skins from the Horizon Case collection can produce it. See every route, its odds and the input float each wear needs.
Trade up from M4A1-S | Nightmare
10 Classified skins, this one included, trade up into one Covert skin from the inputs' collections. From the Horizon Case, the possible outcomes are:
M4A1-S | Nightmare: drop odds, wear & source-case value
M4A1-S | Nightmare is one of 3 Classified skins in the Horizon Case. The Horizon Case pays out Classified tier 3.197% of the time (1 in 31.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 1.066% per opening (1 in 93.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 7.0% | $446.00 | $180.00 |
| Minimal Wear | 8.0% | $34.58 | $76.31 |
| Field-Tested | 23.0% | $13.41 | $32.68 |
| Well-Worn | 7.0% | $8.89 | $25.83 |
| Battle-Scarred | 55.0% | $8.35 | $25.02 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More M4A1-S skins · M4A1-S skins under $10 · Best CS2 skins under $10 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Horizon Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.