- Cost
- $196.00
- EV
- 93%
- $183.05
- Profit
- −$36.83
- after fee
- Win %
- 33%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)3 outcomesSome thin prices
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to M4A1-S | Nightmare
10 Restricted skins from the Horizon Case collection can become M4A1-S | Nightmare. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New M4A1-S | Nightmare needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 33.3%.
- Cost
- $71.17
- EV
- 56%
- $40.20
- Profit
- −$36.22
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $71.53
- EV
- 63%
- $45.33
- Profit
- −$32.11
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $75.94
- EV
- 80%
- $60.50
- Profit
- −$23.33
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $76.93
- EV
- 65%
- $50.36
- Profit
- −$33.14
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $84.49
- EV
- 85%
- $72.05
- Profit
- −$21.84
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)6 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each M4A1-S | Nightmare wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $71.17 | 33.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $20.21 | 33.3% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $6.75 | 33.3% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $5.55 | 33.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $5.21 | 33.3% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.