Nova | Toy Soldier
Nova | Toy Soldier is a Restricted skin available from the Horizon Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up to Nova | Toy Soldier
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins from the Horizon Case collection can produce it. See every route, its odds and the input float each wear needs.
Trade up from Nova | Toy Soldier
10 Restricted skins, this one included, trade up into one Classified skin from the inputs' collections. From the Horizon Case, the possible outcomes are:
Nova | Toy Soldier: drop odds, wear & source-case value
Nova | Toy Soldier is one of 5 Restricted skins in the Horizon Case. The Horizon Case pays out Restricted tier 15.985% of the time (1 in 6.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 3.197% per opening (1 in 31.3).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 7.0% | $19.60 | $14.89 |
| Minimal Wear | 8.0% | $9.47 | $7.14 |
| Field-Tested | 23.0% | $1.35 | $2.64 |
| Well-Worn | 7.0% | $0.96 | $1.57 |
| Battle-Scarred | 55.0% | $0.98 | $1.82 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More Nova skins · Best CS2 skins under $1 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Horizon Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.