M4A4 | Faded Zebra
M4A4 | Faded Zebra is a Mil-Spec Grade skin available from the eSports 2013 Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up from M4A4 | Faded Zebra
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins, this one included, trade up into one Restricted skin from the inputs' collections. From the eSports 2013 Case, the possible outcomes are:
M4A4 | Faded Zebra: drop odds, wear & source-case value
M4A4 | Faded Zebra is one of 3 Mil-Spec Grade skins in the eSports 2013 Case. The eSports 2013 Case pays out Mil-Spec Grade tier 79.923% of the time (1 in 1.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 26.641% per opening (1 in 3.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 1.4% | $75.99 | $138.19 |
| Minimal Wear | 10.8% | $28.96 | $14.84 |
| Field-Tested | 31.1% | $8.40 | $8.06 |
| Well-Worn | 9.5% | $8.71 | $7.53 |
| Battle-Scarred | 47.3% | $8.94 | $7.92 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More M4A4 skins · M4A4 skins under $10 · Best CS2 skins under $10 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See eSports 2013 Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.