- Cost
- $1,735
- EV
- 58%
- $1,012
- Profit
- −$854.28
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.067 (needs < 0.070)78 outcomesThin / unstable prices
Knife finish
Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: price, cases and trade-ups
The Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened starts at $812.77 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$812.77
Minimal Wear
Drops from
1 case
Operation Breakout Weapon Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$200,371.86
in the Operation Breakout Weapon Case
Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $1,663.05 | $1,551.49 | 7.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $812.77 | — | 8.0% |
| Field-Tested | $1,230.24 | $1,242.90 | 23.0% |
| Well-Worn | $931.49 | $1,215.23 | 7.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $827.83 | $888.88 | 55.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $812.77; unboxing this exact finish costs about $200,371.86 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $39.42 | $200,371.86 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 6.2%.
- Cost
- $1,850
- EV
- 53%
- $972.38
- Profit
- −$1,004
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.067 (needs < 0.070)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,553
- EV
- 59%
- $924.08
- Profit
- −$749.68
- after fee
- Win %
- 5%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
CheapestBest profit odds
FN1.5% chance· $1,663.05
Covert → Knife / Gloves
- Cost
- $1,446
- EV
- 49%
- $705.68
- Profit
- −$832.37
- after fee
- Win %
- 9%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.063 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $1,446.01 | 6.2% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $759.33 | 4.6% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | no priced route | — |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $351.88 | 7.7% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web★ Butterfly Knife | Fade★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Butterfly Knife | Night★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter★ Butterfly Knife | Stained★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.