- Cost
- $1,090
- EV
- 87%
- $949.07
- Profit
- −$264.57
- after fee
- Win %
- 23%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.860 (needs < 0.875)13 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Butterfly Knife | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Butterfly Knife | Fade starts at $1,810+ on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$1,810+
Factory New
Drops from
1 case
Operation Breakout Weapon Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$200,371.86
in the Operation Breakout Weapon Case
Butterfly Knife | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $1,810+ | $1,846+ | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | — | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Prices marked + sit at the Steam Market's listing cap: they are a floor, and the item trades for more elsewhere. Buying the cheapest one costs $1,810+; unboxing this exact finish costs about $200,371.86 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Butterfly Knife | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $39.42 | $200,371.86 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Butterfly Knife | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $354.60
- EV
- 87%
- $307.51
- Profit
- −$87.20
- after fee
- Win %
- 20%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $376.86
- EV
- 86%
- $324.71
- Profit
- −$94.50
- after fee
- Win %
- 26%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.864 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $428.67
- EV
- 88%
- $377.87
- Profit
- −$100.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.863 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $444.96
- EV
- 89%
- $395.59
- Profit
- −$100.97
- after fee
- Win %
- 29%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.504 (needs < 0.875)41 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $511.64
- EV
- 102%
- $520.30
- Profit
- −$59.21
- after fee
- Win %
- 33%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $354.60 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | $419.40 | 7.7% |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Butterfly Knife | Night★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter★ Butterfly Knife | Stained★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.