- Cost
- $469.87
- EV
- 58%
- $270.91
- Profit
- −$234.30
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.114 (needs < 0.114)2 outcomesSome thin prices
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to M4A4 | Bullet Rain
10 Classified skins from the eSports 2014 Summer Case collection can become M4A4 | Bullet Rain. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New M4A4 | Bullet Rain needs an average normalized input float below 0.1136 (output float 0.020–0.070). Best chance per contract: 50.0%.
- Cost
- $274.15
- EV
- 62%
- $170.34
- Profit
- −$126.03
- after fee
- Win %
- 25%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.113 (needs < 0.114)4 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $152.38
- EV
- 59%
- $89.89
- Profit
- −$74.22
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.111 (needs < 0.114)4 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $188.10
- EV
- 50%
- $93.38
- Profit
- −$106.90
- after fee
- Win %
- 5%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.112 (needs < 0.114)4 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $216.08
- EV
- 71%
- $153.32
- Profit
- −$82.76
- after fee
- Win %
- 5%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.106 (needs < 0.114)4 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $259.67
- EV
- 69%
- $177.92
- Profit
- −$104.96
- after fee
- Win %
- 5%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.112 (needs < 0.114)4 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each M4A4 | Bullet Rain wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.020–0.070 | < 0.1136 | $152.38 | 50.0% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.1136 and < 0.2955 | $99.19 | 10.0% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.2955 and < 0.8182 | $51.66 | 50.0% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.8182 and < 0.9773 | no priced route | — |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–0.460 | ≥ 0.9773 and any | no priced route | — |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.02 + average × 0.44.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.