- Cost
- $1,247
- EV
- 23%
- $291.99
- Profit
- −$993.05
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)52 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Ursus Knife | Case Hardened: price, cases and trade-ups
The Ursus Knife | Case Hardened starts at $147.87 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 20,332 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$147.87
StatTrak™ Field-Tested
Drops from
2 cases
Horizon Case
Best drop odds
1 in 20,332
0.0049% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$368,822.48
in the Horizon Case
Ursus Knife | Case Hardened price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $283.49 | — | 7.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $200.40 | $264.50 | 8.0% |
| Field-Tested | $196.70 | $147.87 | 23.0% |
| Well-Worn | $152.56 | $180.40 | 7.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $148.00 | $156.65 | 55.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $147.87; unboxing this exact finish costs about $368,822.48 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Ursus Knife | Case Hardened
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $18.14 | $368,822.48 |
| Danger Zone Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $22.53 | $458,079.96 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Ursus Knife | Case Hardened
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 1.9%.
- Cost
- $698.03
- EV
- 38%
- $263.43
- Profit
- −$468.96
- after fee
- Win %
- 4%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)80 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $726.55
- EV
- 24%
- $172.15
- Profit
- −$576.86
- after fee
- Win %
- 1%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)65 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $801.39
- EV
- 45%
- $360.57
- Profit
- −$487.85
- after fee
- Win %
- 8%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)76 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $857.19
- EV
- 41%
- $350.19
- Profit
- −$552.68
- after fee
- Win %
- 12%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)82 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,135
- EV
- 49%
- $551.14
- Profit
- −$655.89
- after fee
- Win %
- 14%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)82 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $698.03 | 1.9% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $292.95 | 1.9% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $228.03 | 1.9% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $204.71 | 1.9% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $194.13 | 1.9% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web★ Navaja Knife | Fade★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh★ Navaja Knife | Scorched★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter★ Navaja Knife | Stained★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.