- Cost
- $270.92
- EV
- 87%
- $235.07
- Profit
- −$66.51
- after fee
- Win %
- 17%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.843 (needs < 0.875)52 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Ursus Knife | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Ursus Knife | Fade starts at $247.52 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 20,332 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$247.52
StatTrak™ Minimal Wear
Drops from
2 cases
Horizon Case
Best drop odds
1 in 20,332
0.0049% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$368,822.48
in the Horizon Case
Ursus Knife | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $262.18 | $316.89 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $432.92 | $247.52 | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $247.52; unboxing this exact finish costs about $368,822.48 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Ursus Knife | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $18.14 | $368,822.48 |
| Danger Zone Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $22.53 | $458,079.96 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Ursus Knife | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Ursus Knife | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 1.9%.
- Cost
- $195.56
- EV
- 67%
- $130.52
- Profit
- −$82.07
- after fee
- Win %
- 14%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.870 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $196.85
- EV
- 84%
- $164.71
- Profit
- −$53.62
- after fee
- Win %
- 26%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.743 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $199.39
- EV
- 83%
- $164.71
- Profit
- −$56.16
- after fee
- Win %
- 26%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $353.89
- EV
- 107%
- $377.50
- Profit
- −$25.63
- after fee
- Win %
- 37%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.660 (needs < 0.875)117 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $356.43
- EV
- 106%
- $377.50
- Profit
- −$28.17
- after fee
- Win %
- 37%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)117 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Ursus Knife | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $195.56 | 1.9% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | $262.95 | 1.9% |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web★ Navaja Knife | Fade★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh★ Navaja Knife | Scorched★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter★ Navaja Knife | Stained★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.