M4A4 | Poly Mag
M4A4 | Poly Mag is a Mil-Spec Grade skin available from the Recoil Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up from M4A4 | Poly Mag
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins, this one included, trade up into one Restricted skin from the inputs' collections. From the Recoil Case, the possible outcomes are:
M4A4 | Poly Mag: drop odds, wear & source-case value
M4A4 | Poly Mag is one of 7 Mil-Spec Grade skins in the Recoil Case. The Recoil Case pays out Mil-Spec Grade tier 79.923% of the time (1 in 1.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 11.418% per opening (1 in 8.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 7.0% | $3.07 | $3.13 |
| Minimal Wear | 8.0% | $0.26 | $0.40 |
| Field-Tested | 23.0% | $0.13 | $0.14 |
| Well-Worn | 7.0% | $0.10 | $0.11 |
| Battle-Scarred | 55.0% | $0.10 | $0.12 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More M4A4 skins · M4A4 skins under $5 · Best CS2 skins under $1 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Recoil Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.